The Historian's Craft

By: John Mulaa
[

][Post to BookMarks @ AfroArticles.com]

[ Posted On: 2008-02-05 ]

Flash forward. When historians finally get to research and write about the extreme disturbances that rocked the First Republic in Kenya, December 2007 and immediately thereafter, it is likely they will work the inevitability route. They will posit as self-evident that the First Kenyan Republic was brought to knees by a number of internal and external factors, some of them beyond its control.

I can picture historians sifting through internal evidence and concluding that contrary to initial conclusions that politics played a lead role in bringing the country to its knees, at the heart of the country's troubles was economics widely understood.

Even though historians will factor in politics as the immediate trigger of a cascade of events that gained a calamitous momentum of their own, and whose confluence became so knotted that even experienced diplomats floundered about in despair over how to untangle the mess, they will quickly dispense with that and focus on the long standing factors that caused the country's inexorable slide.

The historians will likely observe with wonder that the system remained standing for as long as it did. As historians, they should be prepared for such twists.

The extent of vulnerability of, say, a stoutly looking bridge, only becomes evident when the edifice collapses, trapping and crushing users who happen to be using it at the time.

The one long-standing factor that will likely consume rims of paper and megabytes of electronic space is the vulnerability of the First Republic's economy.

Historians and analyst will note, for example, that for close to a quarter a century, the country's economy was at a standstill, which meant it was shrinking relative to rapid population growth. They will also highlight the fact that during its first four decades of existence, the Republic's economy underwent zero qualitative change. Even after picking up some steam in the later years, the economy remained underpowered relative to the load it was supposed to pull, not to mention the concentration of the economic oomph in relatively few hands.

The historians will also likely delve a little deeper and discover that this state of affairs persisted for so long because nobody really cared, at which point they will rope in the constraining political and social factors. They will note that the country started on a wrong foot politically by not re-examining and retooling the inherited state. That state was originally constructed to serve a tiny fraction of the population differentiated by colour.

Because of the vast pool of exploitable resources relative to this privileged class, the state and economy could project a veneer of sophistication that was buttressed by the ever-present threat of force.

The colonial controllers realized the edifice they created was unsustainable at which point they fobbed it off to a clamoring class that just loved extravagant official perks. This class also took care to show its usefulness by widening access, which translated in rapid post independence growth on many fronts: education, health, and infrastructure (to some degree). But a quantitative ceiling was soon reached.

The objective incapacity of the state and society as configured was masked by a host of factors among them venality, ethnicity, institutional decay, lack of national direction and ethos, and preoccupation with super structural political games that became a substitute for serious attempts at overhauling the creaking and groaning contraption that was showing signs of serious stress.

In the meantime, the underlying problems, some of them caused by the initial expansion and concentration of benefits, continued to build up. As the problems mounted, the political class averted its gaze hoping against hope that the problems would just go away.

The class concentrated on commandeering resources using the excuse that the onerous task of divvying up scarce resources was its lot. In the face of a puny economy ($10 billion-20 billion GDP: population 35 million), the class sometimes behaved as if it was at the helm of a great economic power. Factions of the hyper-political class peddled the illusion that the economy was robust and capable of withstanding knocks from within and without. Baghdad Bob likes characters were hired to fool the very ruling class because the characters were so unbelievable they fooled no one else. Their assertions flew in the face of known facts about the fragility of the economy that was proving insufficient to support a restive populace mired in despair. Just when you would have thought that things could not get any worse a faction in control of the state took a wrong turn at the fork in the road, dragging the entire country into a cul de sac. The inevitable happened.

Meanwhile, historians focusing on external factors will work their magic. A clear picture will emerge.

Article Source: http://www.afroarticles.com/article-dashboard

About The Author: John Mulaa is a Researcher and Consultant (World Bank) based in Washington DC. He is also a columnist with the East African Standard. Earlier in his Journalism career, he worked with the Weekly Review (defunct) and the Daily Nation publications in Kenya, as a foreign correspondent.

| View Profile & All Articles By: John Mulaa |

		Post Comment
		Blog This Article!
		Discuss Article in Forum(s)
		Publication \| Reprint Terms

Please Rate this Article

Not yet Rated

Click the XML Icon Above to Receive Kenya Articles Via RSS!

| Category Feeds | All-in-one Feed | Other Feed & Syndication Options |

Additional Articles From - Home | Politics | Africa | Kenya

	Print This Article
	Post Comment
	Add To Favorites
	Email To Friends
	Ezine Ready \| Syndication
	Make PDF Article
	Post To del.icio.us
	Post To Furl
	Add To Google Bookmarks
	Submit To Netscape

	Add To Yahoo! My Web
	Add Main Feed To Outlook
	Post to BookMarks @ AfroArticles.com

	Post To BookMarkAfrica.com

Site Home

Article Categories

More Search Options

Site Map

Submit Articles

Top Authors

Most Recent Articles