Rising stakes as race for State House draws near

By: Abdulahi Ahmednassir
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[ Posted On: 2007-11-18 ]

President Kibaki and his rival for the presidency Mr Raila Odinga are in full throttle for a blockbuster political contest.

Last week, they presented their nomination to the Electoral Commission of Kenya and released their party manifestos. They are set for their final political duel.

In the December election, one will be the victor while the other will be recorded in the annuls of history as the vanquished. The stakes are high and their respective voter blocks well matched, and rearing to engage. With such a delicate balance between the candidates, where will the victor get the extra votes that will propel him to the finish line?

The answer lies in two factors. First, is how sweeping a victory Raila gets in Nyanza and Western Provinces. Second, how the Muslim vote plays between the two candidates.

Contrary to the predictions of pollsters that Raila is the runaway candidate, the excitement and enthusiasm his campaign generates notwithstanding, the informed view is that the election is too close to call. The vote balance of power between the two candidates is evenly matched. Raila has an overwhelming support in Nyanza Province, even though the Kisii vote could be a toss up.

He also has tremendous support among the Kalenjin. Western Kenya is tilting to his side.

As for Kibaki he has a grip over the Gema vote, which cancels to a good extent the votes Raila gets in western, Nyanza and Rift valley. Nairobi is a tie and is thus not a factor in this election either way. Raila has a slight edge in the Coast and northern Kenya. But the election will not be won or lost on how these two regions vote.

Raila's margin victory in western and Nyanza is pivotal. Whereas Raila has the majority votes in both provinces, Kibaki should not be written off entirely. Western Province and the Luhya voters are the most democratic and least tribal. It is in praise of Luhya politics that we must cite this rare attribute of political tolerance that unfortunately has been painted with negative undertone to highlight the lack of ethnic cohesion among the community as an enduring political weakness, as if the opposite is a virtue.

Unlike the jingoistic and radicalised politics that is the hallmark of the Luo and the Kikuyu, the Luhya despite their numerical strength have historically played a stabilising role.

Kibaki depending on the intensity, reach and sustainability of his foray in western Kenya can make a major dent in Raila's grip in the province. Anything between 25 to 35 per cent of the vote in favour of Kibaki will be crucial. A factor that may play favourably for Kibaki is that unlike in Nyanza and some parts of the Rift Valley, the western voters do not see his re-election as an anathema.

Nyanza is the next hot spot. A bruising battle must be fought for the 700,000 Kisii vote is crucial. It seems the community is leaning towards Raila. One should however appreciate that they share the province with a politically more dominant community. Kibaki will have achieved a resounding success if he gets anything between 250,000 to 300,000 of the Kisii vote.

The Muslim vote in the General Election has assumed some pivotal importance, slightly larger than the numerical strength of the community. The vote is conservatively estimated at about two million votes.

The courting of the community by the two candidates brings two interrelated issues to the fore. First, how badly did the Kibaki administration treat the Muslim community to warrant the orchestrated backlash and the belligerent posture of some Muslim leaders?

Second is the situation of the Muslim community so forlorn that their destiny, rights and aspiration have become the subject matter of a contractual trade-off?

Kibaki's government has unnecessarily scarified Muslim rights at the altar of realpolitic by overenthusiastically supporting America's alleged war on terror.

The issue that has radicalised the community is the expulsion of some 18 Kenyans to Ethiopia and at least one person to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The poor handling of the situation by Government officials who tell different tales depending on the audience did not help either.

On the whole it is quite possible that large numbers of Muslims, especially in urban areas like Nairobi and Mombasa will vote for Raila. Kibaki will definitely have his fair share and Muslim vote is still up for grabs.

In North Eastern and Eastern provinces, all depends on the candidates running for parliamentary seats and on this score the two camps are equally matched.

One factor that may create a backlash against Raila is the alleged MoU he signed with some Muslims organisations. Quite a number of Muslims find it repugnant a notion that their rights as citizens of this country can find solace only in a private document drafted between two individuals and not in the laws of the land. Such a contract belittles the community and puts them at the benevolences of an individual.

It is undignified for Muslims to allow themselves be the subject matter of a contractual bargain between individuals in which the consideration that flows through is the community and the benefit goes to the contracting parties. Muslims are certainly not chattels.

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