Global eye focused on SA power transition

By: James N. Kariuki

[ Posted On: 2007-11-26 ]

Black-ruled South Africa justifiably claims certain bragging rights. It is the most industrialised African country with a well-managed economy; it has one of the most liberal constitutions in the world and it contains virtually all the races of the world.

And, despite its comparative youth, post-apartheid South Africa has already been a peace-broker all over Africa and a visible global actor.

Since South Africa has had the chance to learn from the mistakes of rest of the continent, it should do better. Hence the claim: whichever way South Africa goes, the rest of Africa will follow. Against this background, political developments in SA are a matter of interest to Africa and the wider world.

Next month the African National Congress, South Africa's ruling party, is scheduled to meet in the City of Polokwane to choose its leader. As the country's dominant party, the chosen leader will become the nation's head of state after the 2009 presidential race.

Under normal circumstances, this sounds like an easy and straightforward selection process, except that these are not normal times for the ANC. All the party's frontrunners are burdened with irregularities that force their candidacy for the highest office in the land to carry intriguing political scenarios.

The incumbent president, Thabo Mbeki, is a contender to succeed himself as the leader of the party. If successful, the question arises as to how the ANC will select the presidential contender for the 2009 elections as Mbeki is constitutionally barred from a third term presidential bid.

The ANC insists that the Polokwane conference is merely about its leadership and policies. However, an attempt to separate this from public interest amounts to sheer academic exercise as the party's leader is destined to become the country's president.

In this sense, it is a matter of public interest that the party addresses what happens if a leader of the party is constitutionally barred from running for president.

Failure to provide guidelines by the ANC could create a situation that might tempt the incumbent to use his enormous presidential resources to mount a campaign to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third term. Perhaps Mbeki is not the type to overextend his welcome, but then we must remember that power corrupts.

The normal route to get a successor for Mbeki would have been to have his Deputy, Mr Jacob Zuma, take over party leadership and ultimately the presidency. It is still possible at Polokwane for Zuma to be elected the party leader. However, the odds are also real that he could soon face criminal charges for corruption. His supporters suggest that in that event, the ANC Secretary-General, Kgalema Montlanthe, would step in and continue with the Zuma's mission.

Such a candidate, however, would not be an ANC presidential choice but a selection of the Zuma camp. That procedure would not hold especially because Zuma's supporters have already been dubbed bullies who are prepared to bulldoze their candidate all the way to the country's highest office. At Polokwane, the ANC is obligated to lay down the procedure to be followed if a presidential contender is criminally charged.

Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa are equally credible contenders. Both would be easier cases to handle than Mbeki and Zuma, but they bring a different baggage of political hygiene. They are both billionaire businessmen and the ANC would need to state categorically how to separate state power from business interests during presidential tenure. It is all too easy for a president to tip the weight of the state in favour of personal business interests. Such a conflict of interest would be a disaster for South Africa.

Perhaps the easiest compromise candidate would be the sitting Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. In addition to being a prominent figure in the structures of the ANC, she has been an effective minister and has the endorsement of the party's Women's League.

She satisfies Mbeki's publicly stated wish to be succeeded by a woman. Quite importantly also, she would possibly defuse the disgruntled Jacob Zuma and his vocal camp since she is his former wife. By selecting her, power would at least be vested in the family.

Article Source: http://www.afroarticles.com/article-dashboard

About The Author: James N. Kariuki - is head of the African Diaspora Unit at the Africa Institute of South Africa in Pretoria.

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