Ethiopia's pullout a blow to Somalia peace

By: Ernest Mpinganjira
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[ Posted On: 2007-12-08 ]

Last week, Ethiopia announced that it had run out of options in dealing with the Somalia crisis.

This admission presents East Africa with a fresh challenge — containing the ripple effect of Ethiopia's imminent withdrawal of its troops. The region will be forced to focus on another looming crisis with potentially devastating effects.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Mr Meles Zenawi, told the country's parliament that his troops had overstayed in Somalia. This disclosure comes as new conflict looms large between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The two have fought twice over territorial disputes since 1998.

Humanitarian organisations working in the Horn of Africa warned early this month that the two countries had begun building up troops along the border in preparation for war.

Addis Ababa deployed troops in Somalia last December. The mission was to prop the fledgling transitional federal government that had just relocated from Nairobi and was desperate to snatch control of Mogadishu from Islamic militia.

Now, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) are toasting to the news about Ethiopia's plan to withdraw its troops.

The ICU has issued a statement proclaiming victory. It has also announced that it had plans to take back control.

The ICU statement was a warning that the region should expect more bloodbath after Ethiopia's withdrawal. An Islamic extremist organisation, the al-ittihad, that has links with Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda rejoiced on Tuesday at Zenawi's 'admission of defeat'.

Ethiopia's presence in anarchic Somalia with the US backing was deemed a stopgap measure to prop Somali President Yusuf's fledgling transitional federal government. Yusuf and his Cabinet had lived in Kenya for two years since its formation in 2003.

It was also necessary to allow the African Union to constitute a peacekeeping force of 8,000 troops. The Ethiopians were to exit Somalia as soon as AU assembled and deployed peacekeepers.

Ethiopian troops — which locals refer to as forces of occupation — however stayed on for various reasons. First was the delay by the UN Security Council to lift a 10-year arms embargo on Somalia. Secondly, AU took time to assemble its troops. The third was US and European Union's reluctance to honour their pledge to fund peacekeeping exercise.

So far, a paltry 1,600 Ugandan forces have been deployed. They are overstretched in the capital Mogadishu, which teems with thousands of heavily armed insurgents.

Zenawi said he had expected to withdraw his soldiers earlier in the year after ICU militiamen were driven out of Mogadishu.

However, he regretted that divisions in President Yusuf's government had made it difficult.

"Having done the main work (kicking out ICU), we had the belief and expectations that a situation would be created for us to be able to withdraw. However, this belief and expectations could not be met according to our plan," he said in parliament.

The message from Addis Ababa was that the international community should look afresh at the current approaches to resolve the crises in the Horn Africa.

Mr Gareth Evans, the International Crisis Group (ICG) president, warned early this month: "The military build-up on both sides has reached alarming proportions and war could break out again within weeks.

State Collapse and Post-Conflict Development in Africa: The Case of Somalia 1960-2001

Warnings

There will be no easy military solution if that happens, we are looking at a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, destabilisation of Ethiopia and a horrible new humanitarian crisis."

Evans' warning provided a glimpse into Addis Ababa's reluctance to stay on in Somalia. For Zenawi, the Somali imbroglio had outstripped his efforts to contain a looming security threat, especially in the volatile Horn of Africa region.

The Prime Minister's remarks did not surprise many observers. His forces are currently outstretched. They are repulsing Ogden separatists fighting for autonomy.

The immediate impact of Zenawi's admission of 'failure' in Somalia is likely to embolden ICU. The group is likely to wage a vicious war to restore their authority in the fractious nation at war with itself since 1991.

To analysts, the onus of preventing the two countries from going to war has been left to the international community, which is slow in responding to the multiple crises in eastern Africa.

"In the next weeks, urgent outside assistance is needed to ensure that the shooting does not resume," Belgium-based ICG's Africa Briefing quoted Don Steinberg, the group's vice president for multilateral affairs.

Steinberg warned: "International indifference or mistaken confidence could cost the people of the Horn of Africa dearly and lead to a new protracted conflict in the region."

Zenawi's unspoken message was that the UN Security Council, the AU and the US should take the responsibility. That the three organisations have to deflate mounting hostilities that would suck in the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad).

The seven-member Igad bloc has been involved in the search for peace in Somalia for more than a decade.

The US, ICG warned, "must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated."

Ethiopia announced on September 25 this year that it was considering terminating the Algiers agreement that ended the war in 2000. It said Eritrea had encroached into the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ).

Eritrea reacted by accusing Ethiopia of repeated violations of that peace treaty. It urged the Security Council to enforce the decision of the Algiers pact.

The Crisis Group estimated that Eritrea has 4,000 troops, which are backed by artillery and armour in the supposedly demilitarised TSZ and an additional 120,000 troops near the border.

Washington estimated in August that Ethiopia has deployed 100,000 troops along the border. This makes war between the two countries a possibility.

The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says over one million people had fled Mogadishu — including 200,000 this month — following the latest clashes between insurgents and the Ethiopian-backed Somali government.

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About The Author: Ernest Mpinganjira | Contact him at: empinganjira [at] yahoo.com

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