Emerging Tribal Arithmetic & Ethnic Voting Pattern: Will it propel ODM to power .....

By: Jerry Okungu

[ Posted On: 2007-01-15 ]

... or will it be its ruin?

The proposed ODM-K method of choosing its presidential candidate makes for very good reading. The manner in which the consensus was reached at Naivasha is even more intriguing. This is not surprising considering that the whole process is a political contest. And in the game of politics, lobbying, persuading, scheming, outsmarting, rigging or even physically eliminating opponents becomes part of the game. In the game of politics, the ultimate prize is winning at any cost and by any means necessary. Any body who thinks there are morals, ethics and rules of the game is a novice that lives to regret in the aftermath.

Just look at the front runners in the ODM- K presidential race. We have Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi, Joseph Nyagah, Kalonzo Musyoka, Julia Ojiambo, Najib Balala and William Ruto

The beauty of this line up is that not a single one of them shares a tribe with any other candidate. The seven of them represent seven distinct ethnic communities in Kenya save for Najib Balala who is a coastal of mixed origin. A number of prominent indigenous coastal MPs have yet to accept him as one of their own worthy of a Kaya elders’ blessings.

This line up represents Kikuyus, Luos, Maragolis, Embus, Kambas, Samias, cosmopolitan Coast and Kalenjins. If we stretch our imaginations, we can put Uhuru and Nyagah in the same basket under Gema while we lump together Musalia Mudavadi and Julia Ojiambo under the greater Luhya fraternity. Leaving Balala out for lack of clear tribal identity, we can then assume that the contest for the presidency in the ODM- K will be between Gema, Luos, Luhyas, Kambas and Kalenjins.

These four main contending communities have an interesting political history.

Kikuyus and Kalenjins have both held the two highest offices in the land for several decades. Kikuyus have held the presidency for 20 years while that of the vice presidency for 25 years. I’m talking here of Jomo Kenyatta’s 15 year reign and Mwai Kibaki’s now 5 year rule. On the vice presidency, Mwai Kibaki did 10 years, Saitoti 14 and the late Josephat Karanja 1 year.

The Kalenjins held the vice-presidency for 12 years under Kenyatta then held on to power for 24 years when Kenyatta died. Both positions were occupied by Daniel arap Moi, the retired president.

The Luos held the vice presidency for three years from independence while the Luhyas have held it now for a total of close to 5 years; that is if you combine the relatively short stints by Mudavadi’s one month, Wamalwa’s 8 months and Awori’s 3 ½ years

If the law of natural justice and good will among all men was to prevail, one would, based on this scenario, expect that the Luhya, Luos and Kambas would be given the highest consideration for the presidency.

More importantly, among the top contenders, one would have expected Kambas to be considered most seriously for the post of vice presidency considering that they are yet to sit closer to power. But this is politics African style where there are no free riders or free lunches.

Here the fittest survive and the winner takes all. The adage of ‘every community for itself and God for us all’ applies here.

However at the provincial or regional level, the situation changes rather drastically. We have Nairobi and North Eastern Province out of presidential contention as far as any political party is concerned.

The Northerners have never bothered with the quest for presidency for two reasons; one they are badly out numbered in terms of population arithmetic. Two, the majority of them, Somalis, suffer from conflict of interest and national identity. They are Kenyan Somalis alright but when push comes to shove they could belong to Djibouti, Ogaden, Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland or even Yemen.

Nairobi is out of the race only if the political arrangement refuses to see Raila as a cosmopolitan Nairobi politician. Because his origin is in Bondo, Nyanza, Kenyans will never give up thinking that he is first a Luo and second a Nairobi MP. More importantly, his close working relationships with MPs from Nyanza rather than Nairobi MPs have helped to strengthen the notion that his heart belongs in Nyanza rather than in Nairobi.

Another thing, Raila’s dilemma is the dilemma of all Nairobi MPs. Its origin is in the fact that all of us Africans have a sense of belonging in our ancestral lands. We tend to view Nairobi as a place to spend our working lives but finally go back home to our forefathers at the end of the day. This is the reason whenever there is a political realignment, the likes of Beth Mugo, David Mwenje, Norman Nyagah, and Maina Kamanda will always respond to the tribal appeal just as much as Ndolo and Omondi will do for the Luo agenda and Fred Gumo for the Luhya fraternity.

The scenario above is a product of fifty years of active ethnic politics that has dogged this country since pre-independence. Kenya has never enjoyed a sense of nationhood as Tanzania next door since the advent of Uhuru. Ethnic rivalry abetted by past colonial masters and tribal bigotry have never helped us to forge a truly united country. The scenario has been made worse by ethnic political leadership that has only helped to exacerbate the situation. More often than not, our political leaders have hyped our tribal agenda either to propel them to power or to sustain them there. In the end it has always fallen to the ordinary Kenyan to bear the brunt of this negativity. The strange reality is that when you come to think about it, the poor in Masai, Mijikenda, Meru, Butere, Bondo Bomachage, Kipkelion and Kapenguria have always suffered the same fate regardless of who is in power.

Coming back to the ODM tribal numbers that are likely to determine its fate, it is currently touted that the 420,000 delegates slated to participate in the forthcoming presidential nomination, Ruto’s Rift Valley controls 98,000 which is nearly a quarter of the total number of delegates, Kalonzo’s Eastern Province follows with 72, 000, nearly a sixth of the total number while Raila’s Nyanza comes third with 64, 000, a seventh of the total.

With Uhurus’s Central province and Mudavadi’s Western following with 58,000 and 48,000 respectively while Balala comes last with 42,000, it becomes increasingly clear the tribal arithmetic will inform political alliances that may see smaller regional delegations ganging up to beat large communities that think they are already home and dry.

More importantly, such unsung provinces like Nairobi and North Eastern Province with a combined voting power of 38,000 may provide just the much needed swing votes to tilt the balance in favor candidates that may appear disadvantaged at the moment.

Even more crucial is the campaign period between now and June 2007 when the nomination is expected to take place. During this time, many political re-alliances will take place. A number of enemies will become friends while the current comrades will fallout.

If things are anything to go by following the Naivasha accord, chances are that Moi and Biwott will mend fences with William Ruto to rally the Kalenjins behind Ruto if for nothing but to recapture the sweet power they enjoyed for a quarter century. Another thing; let us not forget recent history that saw William Ruto campaign for Moi to retain power in 1992 as a young YK92 member of the Jirongo brigade. The same Ruto was later to serve in Moi’s government as the last Minister for International Security and Provincial Administration until Kanu was thrown out.

Should this happen, chances are that Ruto will lose his national stature he has enjoyed under ODM which has greatly rehabilitated public perception of him as a corrupt individual who not only served in the dreaded Moi regime but also has pending criminal court cases against him. If he reverts into the tribal cocoon, pundits will hang a tribal tag around his neck. Worse still this arrangement will most likely send red signals to those who fought tooth and nail to remove not just Moi but Kalenjins from power. They may think it is too soon to return Moi remnants to power with Moi still alive.

Should Ruto, Moi and Biwott come together, chances are that Kalonzo Musyoka will jump ship and join the bandwagon unless the crave for the presidency clouds his judgment. This possibility is informed by the fact that Kalonzo has always had a soft spot for his mentor Moi who shaped his political career. If he joins the Moi- Ruto camp, chances are that Moi will broker a compromise with the possibility that Ruto becomes Kalonzo’s running mate- if Ruto concedes that is.

Perhaps in this scenario, Uhuru will have very little room for maneuver due to the fact that the Kibaki presidency has diminished his negotiating powers drastically during the 2007 General Elections. More importantly, his open disagreement with the Mois over ODM may negate the possibility of him swallowing his pride especially at a time when he has won a much needed reprieve from the courts against the Biwott brigade.

There are very high chances of Uhuru throwing his lot with ODM to bid his time for the 2012 elections.

In the worst case scenario that Ruto and Kalonzo jump the ODM ship, chances are that they may suffer a backlash from the public that they have cheated for three years that they are the latter day reformers. It will have been a clear case of Kanu hardliners of the ‘80s and ‘90s regrouping under the Moi umbrella. Kalonzo will most likely face the wrath of his critics in Ukambani led by Kivutha Kibwana, Charity Ngilu and Kalembe Ndile who have had no time for him. What will probably matter will be the clout his Ukambani supporters enjoy among the Kambas outside the ODM- K umbrella.

If Kalonzo joins Ruto, they will have a theoretical 180,000 delegates in their docket which is still less than 50% of the total number of delegates. However, it is a fact that the Kambas are not the only inhabitants of Eastern Province. They share the region with Merus, Embus, Somalis and other pastoralists like the Boranas in the North. Another thing, the Embus have offered their own presidential candidate in the name of Joe Nyagah.

Belonging to a big tribe or a big region with more registered voters, more constituencies, locations and sub locations becomes a political advantage in Kenya today, especially if you are a presidential candidate. It gives one the comfort of a theoretical head-start at least at the ODM- K nomination stage. However, the reality and recent history seem to disapprove of this theory.

In 2002, Moi used this theory. He had schemed for years by expanding administrative districts in Rift Valley and other friendly Kanu strongholds at will. Districts were created where they did not need to be and neither were they viable. Constituencies were created, not based on population dictates but rather on political considerations. This is the reason today Nairobi Province with over 3 million people has less constituencies than North Eastern Province whose population has yet to reach 300,000.

To cushion his theory of combining big region, big tribe, big money, access to public resources and the power of incumbency, Moi calculated that giving Central Province Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor, the two large provinces occupied by Kikuyus and Kalenjins; the two communities that had occupied the presidency for four decades would be so awesome and so formidable that traditional supporters like Western, North Eastern, Coast and Eastern Provinces would join the band wagon to give them the necessary five provinces to clinch the presidency. At the end of the day, Moi’s arithmetic did not add up. He lost Central, Eastern, Coast, Western, Nyanza and Nairobi provinces.

Three years later, Narc fell in the same mode of thinking during the referendum debate.

The new leaders that just three years later had fought tooth and nail to bring about reform thought that because of their new found political power and sudden access to public largesse, not to mention the numerical strength of the new rulers, they would bulldoze Kenyans into accepting a flawed constitution. At the end of the day, the combined voting power of Kikuyus, Merus, Embus and Bukusus did not amount to much. To make it worse, revered tribal chiefs like Simeon Nyachae and Moody Awori could not even deliver votes from their own backyards.

Yes, the numbers are a factor in the ODM-K nominations but going by the politics of the present Kenya, yoyote yawezekana.

Finally, where do ordinary Kenyans come in this tribal equation? Will they allow their leaders to continue manipulating them purely on ethnic considerations? Isn’t it time we stood up against this negative ethnicity once and for all and showed Africa once more that we have come of age politically?

We did it in 2002 and we can repeat the same feat if only we have the resolve to take the destiny of this country into our own hands. We have the perfect opportunity to deal negative ethnic politics a blow. Let us prove to the world that any Kenyan from the smallest to the biggest tribe has an equal chance to be the president of this country, circumcised or not. Let us prove to the world that in present Kenya, a Balala, a Magara, a Kerrow, a Surut or any Pokomo with leadership credentials can be electable to the presidency. This must be the year Kenyans must slay the dragon of ethnic bigotry.

My advice to the ODM-K presidential candidates who are serious about being nominated is to hit the road and do serious politicking in every corner of the country. Let them spend more time in regions they think they have no following. Campaigning in their own village markets will take them nowhere. Kenyans of today are far more alert and may not be easily fooled.

[Reference: The Politics of ethnicity, national resources and media biases in Kenya Today -- A Paper presented at the Kennesaw State University Institute for Global Initiatives -- By Jerry Okungu, Chief Specialist, Communications & Media Planning, NEPAD Eastern Africa Secretariat & the East African Political Federation Project.] [This document is a PowerPoint Presentation -- Please click OPEN when prompted or SAVE to save it to your hard drive, then open with PowerPoint -- PowerPoint is included in your Microsoft Office Suite installation.]

Article Source: http://www.afroarticles.com/article-dashboard

Jerry Okungu is a freelance political analyst based in Nairobi, Kenya. Jerry also serves as a Board Director at The Kenya Broadcasting Corporation. Jerry has written extensively on issues affecting Kenya and the rest of Africa over the years. Other articles written by Jerry Okungu are available at this location

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