ENOUGH Project Prof. Ken Menkhaus’ Report on Somalia - Part II

By: Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis
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[ Posted On: 2008-09-15 ]

Conclusion

In May 2008, the U.N. Security Council supported a proposal from the secretary-general to create an “updated, comprehensive, integrated United Nations strategy for peace and stability in Somalia, aligning and integrating political, security, and programmatic efforts in a sequenced and mutually reinforcing way.”[15] Given the analysis presented in this report, such a strategy is badly needed, and planners face a Herculean task of untangling, de-conflicting, and rendering more intelligible the many policies at play in Somalia.

But creating and enforcing a coherent and integrated strategy for Somalia is only a first step. Getting the strategy right is even more important. Efforts to integrate a flawed strategy into the policies and programs of the many external donors, diplomatic missions, and aid agencies will only accelerate the disaster. Unity of purpose is only a virtue if the common strategy makes sense; otherwise it is a recipe for a “lemmings to the sea” en masse plunge in the wrong direction. The United Nations and the donor community have for years devoted considerable energy to coordinating policy among themselves, but far less time critically examining those policy choices.

Finally, the push to create an integrated strategy must directly address the question of which policy agenda is to be prioritized over others in the event that trade-offs and conflicts occur. Is a common strategy intended to ultimately promote the strengthening of the TFG? Support and consolidate peace? Facilitate humanitarian access? Or promote the security interests of key external states? Which of these goods is to be privileged, and which subordinated in support of the privileged agenda? What we have seen to date is that each donor and aid constituency fiercely promotes its own agenda, viewing other projects as playing a subordinate support role for their cause. With 3.5 million Somalis at risk of famine, the human cost of continued failure is escalating by the day.

Endnotes

[1]A more detailed account of recent events in Somalia since 2004 can be found in Ken Menkhaus, “The Crisis in Somalia: A Tragedy in Five Acts,” African Affairs 106 (2007): 357-90.

[2]It was never clear that any of the main players in the Somali saga—hardliners in the TFG (including the president and prime minister), Ethiopia, and hardliners in the ICU—would have been willing to see these power-sharing negotiations succeed, but at the time it was the best hope to bring peace to Somalia.

[3]More details on the ICU and the Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy war in Somalia can be found in John Prendergast, “15 Years After Black Hawk Down: Somalia’s Chance?” ENOUGH Strategy Paper #18 (April 2008), available at http://www.enoughproject.org/reports/somalia).

[4]Considerable confusion exists about the U.S. role in the Ethiopian offensive. It was not, as some observers have claimed, a case of the United States “sub-contracting” the war on terror out to a regional ally. Available evidence suggests that Ethiopian decision makers had been committed to ousting the ICU by force for months, while the United States urged restraint in hopes of brokering a power-sharing deal between the TFG and the ICU. At some point in the fall of 2006, however, the U.S. government concluded that hardliners in the ICU were in control and were unacceptable. At that point the United States offered to provide diplomatic support, intelligence, and other help to back an Ethiopian intervention. Even then, U.S. military leaders urged Ethiopia not to occupy Mogadishu, warning it of a quagmire scenario. That advice went unheeded.

[5]The total population of Somalia is unknown and the subject of debate. The most common estimate is 8 million to 9 million for the entire country, including the population of secessionist Somaliland in the northwest.

[6]Correspondence with the author, July 2008.

[7]Interview by the author, July 2008. Nairobi, Kenya.

[8]Interview by the author, July 2008. Nairobi, Kenya.

[9]In a public speech shortly after the Ethiopian occupation of Mogadishu in January 2007, US Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer referred to this $40 million package as a “down payment” with additional funds to follow. US Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, “Securing Somalia’s Future: Options for Diplomacy, Assistance, and Security Engagement,” Keynote address to the CSIS panel on Somalia, January 17, 2007, available at http://www.state.gov/p/af/rls/rm/79013.htm

[10]This concern prompted an internal debate in the European Commission about possible implication in war crimes. See Chris Tomlinson, “EC ‘Complicit in Somali War Crimes,’” The Independent, April 7, 2007, available at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/eu-complicit-in-somali-wa....

[11]For a recent analysis of this discussion, see Jeffrey Gettleman, “Anarchy-Cursed Nation Looks to Bottom-Up Rule,” New York Times, August 17, 2008.

[12]No one is under the illusion that Ethiopian forces or operatives will disengage entirely from the country.

[13]Barney Jopson, “Ethiopia Signals Shift As Somalian War Drags On,” Financial Times, August 28, 2008.

[14]Ibid.

[15]UN Security Council, Resolution S/Res/1814 (May 15, 2008), p. 3.

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About The Author: Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis - is Orientalist, Assyriologist, Egyptologist, Iranologist, Islamologist, Historian and Political Scientist. Dr. Megalommatis, 51, is the author of 12 books, dozens of scholarly articles, hundreds of encyclopedia entries, and thousands of articles. He speaks, reads and writes more than 15, modern and ancient, languages.

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